DEVILS IN THE DETAILS: Polymarket Rules U.S. Venezuela Raid Is Not An Invasion, Leaving Many Bettors With a Bad Beat
- Kyle
- Jan 6
- 2 min read
Was it an invasion or merely a raid?
Over the weekend, U.S. special forces arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in an overnight raid on their home and transported them to the United States to face charges that include narco-terrorism conspiracy.
In the days since, President Donald Trump has made comments suggesting that the United States will “run” Venezuela, while also making it clear that the U.S. is willing to conduct more operations like this against its adversaries.
What this means for the world is for politicians and voters to decide another day. But for this paper, the important question is simpler, did this operation constitute an invasion of the South American nation? Polymarket says no.
“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control,” PolyMarket wrote in a rules update. “President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”
Following the announcement, many “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by X date?” Yes bettors flooded the comments section, arguing that what occurred clearly met the definition of an invasion.
“Polymarket has descended into sheer arbitrariness,” Bettor Skinner wrote. “Words are redefined at will, detached from any recognized meaning, and facts are simply ignored. That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd.”
Other users met the moment with sarcasm. Bettor ComeToJesusMoment wrote “No evidence was found to support the use of teleportation devices in the snatch-and-extract operation. The claim that Maduro's residence, the airlines, and the port security of the ship bound for New York were under control for two hours is considered unrealistic by polymarket chief of intelligence.”
For what its worth, Oxford Languages defines an invasion “as an incursion by a large number of people or things into a place or sphere of activity” with a secondary definition as “an unwelcome intrusion into another's domain.”
As of tonight, the “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by…” markets for January 31st, March 31st, and December 31st are trading at 5%, 13%, and 23% Yes, respectively.
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