BEGINNER’S LUCK OR A “BURDENSOME-MIX” OF INSIDER INFORMATION?: A PolyMarket Bettor Turned $30K Into $400K Betting On Maduro’s Removal
- Kyle
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Beginner’s luck or a “Burdensome-Mix” of profiting on insider information?
As the world reacts to the end of Nicolás Maduro’s reign in Venezuela, an anonymous Polymarket bettor who goes by the name “Burdensome-Mix” is $400,000 richer after betting big that the longtime despot would be removed from office by the end of the month.
On Saturday morning, the world changed. The United States announced that a special forces unit had arrested Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in an overnight raid on their home and transported him to the United States.
According to Attorney General Pam Bondi, Maduro faces charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machine Guns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machine Guns and Destructive Devices against the United States.
“We will crash the cartels, and we will defend our citizens against all threats, foreign and domestic,” President Trump said in a press conference after the arrest.
As Venezuelans celebrate and political leaders in the U.S. and abroad grapple with what comes next, the Gazette’s attention has turned to Polymarket, where a user who opened their account in December 2025 turned $33,932.98 into $443,816.28 in just eight days.
The account, using the name “Burdensome-Mix” (wallet 0x31a56e9e690c621ed21de08cb559e9524cdb8ed9), placed a series of aggressive bets predicting that Maduro would be removed from office by January 31 when the odds where as low as seven and eight cents.
“Some war related insider trading? A brand new account in polymarket, only invested in US going to war with Venezuela and Maduro out by January 31,” Researcher and Oppo Guy Tyson Brody tweeted. “Up 13k so far, was spending thousands on Maduro out at bargain prices as recently as 4 hours ago. Now it’s at .50. This account, Burdensome-Mix, has existed for only one week and quickly became the biggest “yes” holder in the Maduro out market. Seems pretty suspicious! Pete Hegseth making some beer money on the side?”
While nothing has been confirmed about who this bettor is or what they did, or did not, know beforehand, popular investor and podcaster Joe Pompliano argues that even if Burdensome-Mix did have insider information, Polymarket functioned exactly as designed.
“Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged,” he tweeted. “This happens all the time on prediction markets. Their entire value proposition is delivering news faster and more accurately than anyone else, which is why their CEOs frequently talk about why insider trading is good and should be allowed.”
However, IP and corporate attorney Ariel Givner offered a more nuanced take, tweeting that officials, or those close to them, betting on outcomes they control could still likely illegal in the USA.
“In most cases, there is no bright-line federal rule that says “you may not trade on nonpublic information” in a prediction market the way there is with public company stock,” She wrote. “That does not mean anything goes. Fraud, manipulation, and misrepresentation are still squarely in play. If someone trades while secretly controlling the outcome, coordinating manipulation, lying about facts, or using deceptive conduct to move a market, regulators and prosecutors already have tools to act. Those tools do not depend on calling it insider trading. TL;DR: prediction markets sit in a gray zone. Traditional insider trading rules do not always apply cleanly, but fraud and manipulation laws absolutely do.”
You can view Burdensome-Mix’s activity directly on Polymarket, where every bet and payout is visible onchain here: https://polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E690c621eD21De08Cb559e9524Cdb8eD9-1766730765984?tab=activity
